The remnants of tropical storm Harvey have moved into the southern Gulf, on the western side of the Yucatan. At any time in the next couple of days, these remnants are very likely to redevelop back to a tropical depression or tropical storm. In that case, it would still be called Harvey. NOAA Hurricane Hunters spent 7 hours in the Gulf and western Caribbean on Tuesday, taking readings to try to get a better picture of what the atmosphere is doing. The state of the atmosphere controls if or how tropical systems form or don’t form. Don’t expect dramatic change in the remnants. It may take them a while to generate a new circulation. That is controlled a lot by water temperature and lack of wind shear.
Whatever becomes of this system, it is most likely to head to south Texas or northern Mexico. The odds are it will be a tropical storm by Friday. Even if it makes landfall it may stall and hug the Texas coast over the weekend as it drifts toward Louisiana early next week. That is a very difficult forecast to make. While we won’t likely get a direct impact, we may see heavier rain over and after the weekend, if it edges toward us.
The weak tropical disturbance over south Florida will likely not move much in the next few days, but then move northeastward into the Atlantic.