Numbers for the mid-season NOAA (national oceanic and atmospheric administration) hurricane seasonal forecast are out. This forecast is calling for more tropical activity than the one issued before the season.
The amount of hurricanes remains unchanged. Originally NOAA was calling for 11-17 named storms (tropical storm or hurricane). Now, the forecast is calling for 14-19 named storms. The number of hurricanes forecast is unchanged and still sits are between 5 and 9. The amount of forecasted major hurricanes though did see a slight bump from 2-4 to 2-5.
What does all this mean then? Well, before the season started, NOAA placed the average at 45% of seeing an above normal season. Now, with this latest forecast, the likelihood of an above average season is now at 60%.
The average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
While NOAA has bumped up the chances of an average hurricane season, it doesn’t tell the entire story. The NOAA forecast is for the entirety of the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean & Gulf of Mexico), not just for our area. The Atlantic basin encompasses a vast area and it’s impossible to pin-point any particular storm before something even forms.
With that, it is important to remember, no matter what the seasonal forecast says, you need to prepare the same. The saying that applies here is that it only takes one storm to have a bad season. While NOAA believes the Atlantic will be busier than previous thought, we along the Gulf Coast need to prepare regardless, because again, it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.
For tips and things you should know for the season you can watch our hurricane special.
The First Alert Storm Team will continue to bring you the latest concerning the tropics on-air, online, and on social media! We’ve got you covered.