Halfway Watching the Tropics

Tropical Outlook
Tropical Outlook

Gaston is not a threat to the US. It will follow a similar path as that of Fiona, staying in the central Atlantic. The “invest,” or investigation, remains just as a tropical disturbance, moving toward the Bahamas. By the weekend, it could become a tropical depression, but the track is uncertain. We’ll watch it very closely over the weekend, as whatever it may become could move into the Gulf or even toward us. It may also move right up the Florida peninsula or stay on the east side of Florida, in the Atlantic. Even if it were to come toward us, there’s little certainty as to how strong or weak it may be.

Local weather is routine with rain coverage soon lowering. Tomorrow we get scattered showers and thunderstorms in the heat of the afternoon, producing some downpours and then moving on. Coastal locations may get a few morning showers. Rain coverage should be around a quarter of the area.

Rain coverage then falls even lower into the weekend to 20% or less daily. We stick in the middle 70s at night and in the lower 90s in the day, with inland locations reaching the middle 90s.

We are only halfway through hurricane season so be prepared for whatever may come. Use your free News 5 weather app to follow the tropical weather and remember there is a large resource of hurricane information on wkrg.com

Remember that weather computer models use math and physics to take the state of the atmosphere and project it forward. They are not perfect in integrating temperature, pressure, and humidity at different levels. The Earth-Atmosphere system is complex with many things we don’t understand and cannot fully measure. Multiple countries, universities and private companies run daily weather models that may be updated 4 times a day.
1) No model is correct every day or in every situation or every region.
2) The farther out in time you are, the less certain any model solution is.
3) Models give precision (detail) but that is not the same as accuracy (right or wrong).
4) Model agreement at any time implies a higher likelihood of being right but does not guarantee it.
5) A change in a model projection does not mean the weather is changing. It means the model is trying to find reality.

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