Some Thunderstorms Today While Watching the Gulf

Active Tropics
Atlantic Basin

The Tropics: There is a lot of activity spread throughout the Atlantic but the closest to home is Invest 99L. This is a disturbance that computer models are ‘investigating’ on the northern edge of Cuba. Invest 99L has a 60 percent chance of forming into a tropical system in the next two days and a 80 percent chance in the next five days. This means it has a high chance of forming this week. Invest 99L is moving slowly at 10 to 12 mph through the Florida Straits.  Here it has to contend with some dry aloft and land masses that help to weaken shower and thunderstorm activity.  After it moves past Key West, it enters the southern Gulf (timeframe is Monday).  This area has conditions that are more favorable for storm formation and while storm formation is likely, it is still not a given.  Since a storm has not formed yet, the track is still hard to pin point, but it looks like the eastern Gulf has a better chance of seeing it. Areas from New Orleans to southern Tampa should monitor Invest 99L. In most cases, IF a storm forms, it would reach land late this week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday).  As of now, suggestions could make it as strong as a tropical storm but a lot has to happen between now and then and that will be path dependent.

Remember that Hurricane Gaston also lives in the middle of the Atlantic. Far from Bermuda, Gaston will move northwest before turning sharply northeast keeping the storm in the central Atlantic, away from all land. There is also a new tropical depression, Tropical Depression Eight, just off the North Carolina coast.  It is likely to strengthen into a storm before turning away from the cast Tuesday.  A big concern for the Carolinas.  This is not a concern for the Central Gulf Coast. Another African wave is set to move into the eastern Atlantic early this week.

Today has a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms than yesterday. Thunderstorms this morning will start along the coast and work their way inland. The chance of rain this afternoon is 40 percent. If you are in the northeastern areas like Thomasville, Jackson, Monroeville, Evergreen, and Brewton, you will be more likely to see a dry or mainly dry day. Otherwise the day brings clouds and sun with highs near 90. An east wind will be gusty along the coast creating seas around 1 to 2 feet in the Gulf and a moderate risk for rip currents.

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